Thursday, May 20, 2004

Kerry's got 270 electoral votes

Still a long time until November, but Kerry is in good shape for a candidate who has had $60 million of negative ads dumped on him. Since the last projections, Michigan and Ohio are the only big swings, though New Jersey may be back in play.

A couple of comments:

For polls taken 6 months prior to an election, I am astonished at how sensistive the numbers are to news trends. There may be few surveyed who are declaring themselves undecided, but voters appear to be changing their minds.

I saw an online comment about undersampling of people whose only phone is cellular. I suspect that the group is disproportionately younger folks.

Something big--revelation, resignation, indictment--is due to hit the Administration before June 30. When that happens, we'll get the chance to learn if Bush's numbers can go any lower....